Another Black Friday has come and gone, and the Logical Position (LP) team has been busy sifting through data to discover the trends that matter most to e-commerce businesses. Leading up to November, there was some concern about consumers’ appetite for spending this holiday season. Experts worried that election-year uncertainty, geopolitical upheaval, slightly rising unemployment figures, and overall economic dissatisfaction would create headwinds for the average consumer. However, those fears never materialized. By 11:59 p.m. on Cyber Monday, American consumers had spent more than $41 billion online — up nearly eight percent year-over-year.
While this resilient spending is fantastic news for e-commerce businesses, it’s only part of the story. This year’s data reveals significant shifts in consumer behavior — from when holiday shopping starts to purchasing preferences. These insights should motivate sellers to rethink their advertising strategies for next year.
The Evolution of Holiday Shopping
“Black Friday” traditionally refers to the day when a rush of holiday shoppers finally turns retailers’ profits from red to black. Historically, shoppers held off on buying all the way through Thanksgiving and then spent most of their budget between Black Friday and the final shipping day before Christmas. However, new consumer behavior suggests we should consider renaming the entire season “Black November.”
Over the past three to four years, businesses have started launching holiday promotions earlier in November to stay ahead of the competition. Between 2022 and 2023, online retailers saw a 41% revenue lift in the five days prior to Thanksgiving, and we expect to see that rise again in 2024 as data continues to come in.
This race backward has trained consumers to expect holiday promotions earlier in the year. They’re now much more comfortable making purchases before Thanksgiving if it means securing the best prices, avoiding inventory shortages, and finishing their holiday lists early. While the so-called “Turkey Five” remains the most significant shopping week of the year, overall consumer spending has spread more evenly throughout the month, reshaping the traditional dynamics of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Black Friday vs. Cyber Monday
Leading up to the COVID Christmas, Cyber Monday was always the largest e-commerce shopping day of the year, with Black Friday in second place. But in 2020, those positions reversed as Black Friday beat Cyber Monday for the first time. Stimulus checks and increased online shopping during lockdowns fueled this shift. Since then, there’s been a battle every year over which day would be bigger.
That battle continued in 2024. According to Adobe Analytics, Black Friday spending grew from $9.8 billion in 2023 to $10.8 billion in 2024, while Cyber Monday increased from $12.4 billion to $13.3 billion. While Cyber Monday maintained its lead, the gap between the two days narrowed from 26% to 23%.
The growth of online shopping has only accelerated this change. Years ago, Cyber Monday was a one-day sale designed to encourage consumers to shop online, which was still a novel activity. Now that online shopping is the norm, many businesses no longer treat Cyber Monday as a special day and just run their Black Friday promotions all weekend.
Consumers have become savvy to retailers’ discount games, so the sense of urgency has all but disappeared. If the deals won’t get any better, why wait until Monday to buy?
Strategy Choices Impacted Results
Depending on their unique holiday strategies, some businesses may have seen very different results between the two main holiday shopping days. Brands that had more promotions throughout the holiday season and started their sales earlier may have seen a stronger Black Friday because their customers were ripe to buy.
Conversely, brands that started their sales on Black Friday may have seen stronger sales on Cyber Monday because their buyers weren’t warm to their deals until later.
Notably, Thanksgiving Day sales were stronger than in past years, prompting people to take advantage of great prices on Thursday and Friday.
The Rise of Mobile Commerce
The continued growth of mobile shopping is another key trend that impacted the holiday season. In 2023, 51% of consumers made purchases on mobile, beating out desktops for the first time. In 2024, the share of mobile purchasers grew to 55% of all shoppers. That trend will undoubtedly continue in the years to come.
The rapid growth in mobile commerce has been driven by the user experience dramatically improving over the years. Websites are now better optimized for mobile, and the checkout processes have become faster and simpler. For example, a quick double-tap of the side button triggers Apple Pay on many phones, eliminating the need to enter card details. Additionally, the growing adoption of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services like Klarna and Afterpay have made mobile purchases even more accessible, especially for younger consumers.
Convenience is another key driver of mobile shopping. Consumers can shop from anywhere with a cellular signal. This year, in-store Black Friday shopping helped drive online sales as people used their phones to compare prices while shopping in physical stores, often making mobile purchases from competitors offering better deals online.
A Peek Behind the Advertising Curtain
While the rise of mobile commerce created new opportunities for retailers, it also contributed to a more competitive and complex advertising landscape in 2024. As our team managed holiday advertising campaigns, we saw a few trends emerge among our clients:
- All five shopping days were significantly more expensive than last year.
- Black Friday cost-per-click (CPC) numbers were up 12-15%.
- Cyber Monday CPCs skyrocketed to a 20% increase over 2023.
These rising costs are part of an ongoing trend driven by several factors. Retailers are increasingly willing to spend more during the holiday season to capture market share, which drives up costs for everyone. Additionally, automated advertising tools predicted enormous Cyber Monday demand and adjusted bids upward accordingly, further increasing costs.
Fortunately, these increased acquisition costs were mitigated by other gains. Conversion rates increased thanks to better-designed websites and automated advertising tools that more effectively targeted potential customers. However, measuring these gains proved challenging as unprecedented delays in Google Ads reporting made it difficult for advertisers to gauge real-time performance.
Looking Ahead to 2025
These shifts in consumer behavior, mobile commerce, and advertising dynamics create opportunities and challenges for retailers planning their 2025 holiday strategy.
Sales Timing and Strategy
2024 proved that Cyber Monday isn’t dead yet, but it’s time as the top spending day may be coming to an end. The Turkey Five will still dominate the holiday season, but demand will be more distributed throughout November. Consumers will expect sales to begin early next November. Retailers who can meet that expectation stand to capture a lot of consumer demand.
Mobile and Payment Readiness
Investing in mobile-friendly experiences and seamless checkout processes will be crucial. Features like Apple Pay and BNPL options can drive more purchases, particularly with younger consumers.
Budget Planning
Maintaining flexibility will also be critical, especially as advertising costs continue to rise. Rather than conserving an advertising budget to spend during the Turkey Five, retailers should plan to spread their advertising investment throughout November and be ready to respond when demand increases.
Technical Preparations
Of course, none of these steps will be useful if retailers can’t effectively track their results. Relying solely on Google Ads reporting may leave retailers blind to growth opportunities next season. Retailers should also invest in third-party analytics tools like Triple Whale and incorporate website analytics into their decision-making process to ensure access to real-time performance data.
Responding to Change
The 2024 holiday shopping season showed us that e-commerce continues its rapid evolution. The days of consumers patiently waiting for top-tier Cyber Monday promotions are ending. In its place, new patterns emerge: holiday shopping starts early in November, relies heavily on the mobile experience, and requires retailers to be more flexible and data-responsive than ever before. Those who can adapt to these changes while maintaining the agility to respond to shifting consumer demands will be in the best position to succeed in 2025.
